The fall of Mubarak and victory for the Egyptian people

Incredible scenes on the streets of Cairo as President Hosni Mubarak finally steps down as leader. After the hopes of a nation were dashed last night by Mubarak’s refusal to relinquish power, Egypt’s vice-President Suleiman announced that Mubarak had resigned and power was to be handed to a military council. This is significant as it means control of the country will not go to any Mubarak political appointees, although it is uncertain who exactly, in terms of personnel, will be running the country in the aftermath of Mubarak's resignation

For the past 18 days the Egyptian people have protested, occupying Tahrir Square
and defeating first the feared state police, and then the hired pro-Mubarak thugs, in pitched battles. Several hundred have been killed and many thousands injured, yet they refused to leave. Concessions made by Mubarak, such as the appointment of a vice-President, confirmation neither he nor his son would run for election, and constitutional reforms, were welcomed but weren’t enough to unseat the protestors. Now they have achieved what only a month ago would have seemed unthinkable

So what will the military do? Will they abide by the promises of constitutional change promised by Mubarak and allow free and fair elections in September? I think the ground swell of public opinion will mean they will have no choice. Throughout, the military has remained, publicly at least, neutral, and they still have the trust and respect of the protesters. Behind the scenes however, the military has always been the dominant political force, and have been the main point of communication with leaders in the outside world, including the Americans and the Israelis. It is almost certain that Mubarak was forced tonight out by the military; it is surprising that this wasn’t done sooner

After a second successful revolution in as many months in the Arab world, there will be nervousness in many Arab dictatorships. Some, such as Jordan, have already enacted constitutional reforms in a pre-emtive bid to see off protests. Others, such as Syria, Algeria and Yemen, as well as many others, will be worried about what comes next in their own countries (although Syria and Algeria both have brutal and powerful state security apparatus so there is a higher potential for bloodshed). Iran will also be nervous as protesters who almost toppled Ahmadinejad’s regime last year may be emboldened by what they have seen. It is difficult to say just what will happen next but there is no doubt that this is history in the making – the spread of democracy in the Arab world