No need to panic, not yet!

The recent leaking of the transcript of a meeting between Bill Kenwright and representatives of the Blue Union has caused a storm around Goodison Park. The mood was already bleak with many fans angry at Kenwright for the lack of transfer funds afforded to David Moyes this summer, but the lid was blown off the pot with the release of the minutes. Everton are angry, insisting that all sides agreed to keep the meeting confidential, and many fans have turned against the movement. But many think leaking the transcript was the right thing to do, and that Kenwright is dragging the club down. Whatever your opinion, the fact is that the meeting lifted the lid on some very interesting truths about the state of Everton FC.

When Kenwright took the club over from Peter Johnson 12 years ago we were in a precarious situation, both on and off the pitch. Years of mismanagement had left the club on the brink of relegation and on the verge of administration. Fast forward to today, and while the situation on the pitch is much different, financially it does seem like the club is being held together by sticky back plastic and the good intentions of a few. The debt Kenwright took over from Johnson has been renegotiated to a much more manageable yearly sum, but income is still outstripped by expenditure to the tune of £5million per year. Everton’s bankers, Barclays, have by all intents and purposes been accommodating but have decreased the clubs overdraft to £25million and has seemingly been putting pressure on Kenwright to sell one of our star players to service the debt. Kenwright himself claims to have remortgaged his house and taken out a £10million loan for the club, which, if true, is a measure of the man.

The Blue Union accuse Kenwright of standing in the way of progress. They claim he has failed, on two occasions, to build the club a new stadium, and that he has failed in his bid to find a new owner for the club. They also suggest that some fans believe that he is diverting money from the balance sheet. It has also been suggested to me that he had full knowledge that the transcript was to be released, and that there was no such confidentiality agreement in place, and that the club is trying to pull the wool over the eyes of Evertonians by claiming otherwise.

I certainly don't doubt the intentions of the Blue Union, and their determination to take action to further the Everton cause is admirable. And there are certainly questions to be answered. Kenwright hasn’t done himself any favours with his silence on some of the fans concerns. He has lauded Keith Harris, the man appointed with finding the club a new buyer, yet this is the man who nearly sold the club to a trickster from a single bed flat in Manchester, and whom David Gill, the Manchester United CEO, said would go anywhere for publicity. There is also the matter of the £25million operational costs of the club, which Kenwright seemed unable to explain at the meeting, although the club claim this is largely due to the new Finch Farm training complex. The question of whether there was an agreement in place to keep the details of the meeting confidential can easily be answered by the Blue Union releasing the unedited version of the minutes from the tape (there is definitely a tape as this level of conversational detail didn’t come from memory). The fact that they haven’t, to me, speaks volumes.

Personally, I firmly believe Kenwright saved the club. He took over at our lowest ebb, and along with others prevented the club from slipping into administration. He appointed Moyes, and then stuck by him when many fans were demanding his head, and they continue to have one of the best working relationships in the league. He has overseen the building of the state of the art training facility at Finch Farm and has developed a productive, close knit relationship with sponsors Chang. His dedication to the club, as the Blue Union admit, is not open to question. He has been unbelievably unlucky with the Kings Dock and Destination Kirkby projects, both of which he invested considerable time, money and effort into. I also believe that he has taken the club as far as he can, and he himself has said publicly for years now he wishes to sell to the right buyer. But as Kenwright says, we are in the middle of a severe global financial crisis. Buyers for football clubs are few and far between. Those clubs that have been bought either have brand new stadiums (in some cases that they didn’t even pay for), or have been taken over by those so rich that the financial crisis barely bothers them. The former includes clubs such as Blackburn and Sunderland, while the latter include Liverpool, Chelsea and Man United. Man City fall into both categories. The fact is that very few people are interested in buying a club with an ageing stadium and substantial debts, so quite whom Everton fans see taking over from Kenwright is unclear.

There are other members of the board who should perhaps be attracting more criticism than Kenwright. Robert Earl underwrote loans for the club and brings, according to Kenwright, considerable marketing experience, has yet to actually invest any money. Likewise Jon Woods has not, as far as anyone is aware, invested any money since the takeover from Johnson. There are also some extremely wealthy individuals (Lord Granchester and Phillip Green, billionaires both) around the club who, for one reason or another, don’t wish to invest. Perhaps Kenwright should be more persuasive in his endeavours to get one of them to part with some cash, but Kenwright seems to be the only one who has invested any substantial money into the club.

The lack of a new ground is a severe hinderance to the club finding a new owner. Goodison is a grand old stadium with a great atmosphere and a distinguished history, but there is no scope for expansion, and matchday revenue is unsustainably low. There has been plenty of finger pointing about why the previous stadium projects have fallen through, but one thing is clear - there needs to be a new push for a new stadium, preferably in co-operation with Liverpool city council. The Football Quarter scheme looks an interesting proposition that would re-develop the local area around the current ground. For the club to be able to afford this though, investment would be needed.

Everton fans are frustrated because they see sides around them spending, whilst we are currently the only club without a summer signing. This is, of course, understandable. Clubs such as Sunderland have signed several big names this summer, while rivals Liverpool, Chelsea and both Manchester clubs have spent huge. It is worth mentioning though that £250 million of the £350 million spent in the Premier League this summer has been from these five clubs; Tottenham and Stoke have so far spent nothing, whilst a further eight clubs have spent under £10million each. Sides like Aston Villa, Newcastle and Arsenal, as well as Spurs if they lose Modric, will be significantly weaker this season that last season, whereas Everton still have the same squad that finished last season so strongly (with the addition of Ross Barkley). It is true, of course, that this all could change during the remainder of the transfer window.

Aside from the clubs financial situation, there is much to be optimistic about at the club. We have one of the best managers in the league, who has built a top squad with a fantastic work ethic and a great team spirit who have been together for several seasons, and an excellent backroom staff. We have many in demand players, the vast majority of whom are under long term deals, and at least four of whom – Jagielka, Rodwell, Fellaini and Baines, are valued at at least £15million. Our midfield scored more goals than any other Premier League side, other than Man Utd, last season, and we have two current England internationals in our defence. It is certainly the case that we are light up front but Beckford finished last season strongly, and Saha has had a full pre-season for once. I actually fancy Big Vic to have a good season, and with the attacking prowess we have from midfield, particularly from Tim Cahill, goals may not be so much of an issue. Much depends on how Mikel Arteta plays this season, as his guile and craft could be crucial if we are to do well.

The major plus for Everton is, yet again, the youth system. For year we’ve had one of the most productive youth programmes in the Premier League, and last years emergence of Seamus Coleman and Jack Rodwell was a highlight. This year it seems that Ross Barkley is the latest to roll off the production line. He may have come through sooner but for a double leg break on England duty last season, and his performances at the start of this season have been hugely promising, leading to an under-21 call up for the 17 year old midfielder. Also looking to break into the first team will be Magueye Gueye, who had a fantastic pre-season prior to his injury, and reserve team captain Jose Baxter has bags of promise and will also be hoping to step up. There are several players from last season’s triumphant Academy side who certainly have the potential to make the grade, namely Conor McAleny, Jake Bidwell and Eric Dier. Dier in particular looks like a special player, and we have an option to sign him at the end of the season, which we should take up at all costs. Two players who missed the Academy final as they were on England duty, John Lundstram and Hallam Hope, have been touted in the national media as future stars.

The future for Everton will be the youth of the club. When you have a quality youth system as we do, this is a good thing, but we do need some investment in the team to complement it. We don’t need to spend a fortune, and to be honest I don’t want a billionaire sugar daddy to bankroll the club. I see what is happening at Man City, and what has happened at Chelsea, and it makes me feel empty. Buying success, for me at least, is not a satisfactory way to run a club, and besides, new UEFA rules concerning the way clubs are run and the amount of debt they can hold means this type of business model won’t be viable in the future anyway.

What we need is someone who will invest enough to help the club into a new stadium and to clear the majority of our debts; these acts alone would free up enough money to give Moyes a decent transfer budget each season. However this level of investment, while not excessive, is going to be difficult to come across in today’s financial environment, and fans need to understand and accept this. However the gloom around the club, even factoring in the opening day defeat to QPR, is unwarranted, unjustified, and the fans really need to pull together for the sake of the team.

What next for Everton?

After another season which started so poorly and ended with such promise Evertonians yet again find themselves wondering how the club are going to take the necessary steps to help the club progress to the next level. David Moyes has consolidated us in and around the Europa League spots, which is infinitely preferable to spending every other season fighting relegation, but with other clubs around spending heavily this is becoming more and more difficult to maintain.

Players out

The club again appears to have little money to spend so Moyes is likely to have to raise transfer funds by selling, and will need to spend shrewdly. James Vaughan has already left for Norwich for £2.5 million, while Iain Turner, Kieran Agard, Hope Akpan and Thomas Donegan have all left on free transfers. Jan Mucha is fed up of bench warming , and is unlikely to remain at the club. Yakubu is on his way out, and his sale should raise £3 million. Fenerbache are rumoured to want to sign Joseph Yobo permanently, although they are balking at the £6 million price tag. More likely if he goes we’ll get £3-4 million.

As usual, there are no shortage of rumours in the papers linking Everton’s top players with the bigger teams. Jack Rodwell has long been linked with a move away, with Man Utd or Man City potential destinations for an estimated £20 million. Big spending City have also been linked with player of the season Leighton Baines for £25 million (or £20 million plus Wayne Bridge). Looking less likely to leave, despite interest from Real Madrid and Chelsea, is Marouane Fellaini. Of all the players linked with a move away Fellaini is the most important to the team, and the most difficult to replace. He’s one of the only midfielders in the Premier League truly capable of dominating a midfield, particularly now he’s sorted his disciplinary problems. However he’d command a £20-25 million fee if he was to leave.

One player who perhaps surprisingly hasn’t yet been linked with a move away is Diniyar Bilyaletdinov. The mercurial Russian has failed to settle in the Everton first team, despite occasional flashes of brilliance. The fans are also divided on him, but whatever you think of him the fact that Moyes has never given him a sustained run in the side means we’ll never see the best of him, so there’s little point in him staying. If we can offload him back to Russia for £8-10 million, slightly less than we paid for him, it’d be considered good business.

Players In

The over riding priority for the summer is to improve the strike force. Last season Everton’s strikers scored a paltry 16 goals Premier League goals between them, 15 of which came from Saha and Beckford. With the departure of Vaughan and the likely departure of Yakubu, as well as Louis Saha’s injury record means at least two strikers will probably have to be brought in. Of all those linked the most exciting prospect is German international Miroslav Klose, but it seems his wage demandsof around £120,000 a week put him out of Everton’s reach.

West Ham striker Demba Ba is also available on a free, and has a very good goalscoring record, both in the Premier League (7 goals in 12 games), and throughout his career (a record of a goal every other game). His wage demands are also a little high, but more affordable than Klose. He has, however, suffered with injuries in the past so his fitness isn’t guaranteed. Another possible free transfer is Cardiff striker Jay Bothroyd. A journeyman throughout his career, he has finally hit his stride at Cardiff, scoring 20 goals last season and earning himself an England cap. He is a tall, strong forward, which may complement Beckford, but it is a gamble as to whether he could do it in the Premier League.

Likewise with two other targets, Craig Mackail-Smith and Shane Long. Mackail-Smith has scored at a prodigious rate for Peterborough over recent seasons, netting 34 goals in total last season, and is available for £3.5 million. Long impressed for Reading last year, scoring 25 goals in the Championship, and has attracted attention of the likes of Bayern Munich and Liverpool. Of the two, Long is the more attractive proposition, in terms of his attitude, age, and his attributes, but would cost slightly more, at £5 million. Another possibility, on loan, is Man Utd striker Danny Welbeck who scored 6 goals in 22 games on loan at Sunderland last year

Another area that needs strengthening is the left wing position, particularly if we lose Bilyaletdinov. Since Pienaar left for Spurs in January we have looked less threatening down that flank, and we need somebody who can form a strong partnership with Leighton Baines (if he stays). If you asked the fans who they’d like to sign a large percentage would love to see Landon Donovan back at the club. A huge success in his loan period back in 2010, he can operate on either flank or down the middle, and has expressed his desire to return to the club at some point. He is pacy, aggressive, and hard working; he knows and loves the club, and fits in well with the style of play. It just remains to be seen if we could do a deal with LA Galaxy for his services. Recently we have also been linked with Aston Villa winger Marc Albrighton, which would be an excellent signing. He is young, exciting and English, and can play on either flank. However he has recently signed a new 3 and a half year contract, and there is little indication Villa would be willing to part with him. West Brom’s Chris Brunt and Wolves’ Matt Jarvis have both also been linked but neither would be allowed to leave for less than £7-8 million

Coventry keeper Keiran Westwood is a possible replacement for Jan Mucha, although there is stiff competition for his signature from several Premier League clubs. Deputy to Tim Howard has been a bit of a graveyard for keepers over recent years so whether Westwood will see Goodison as his best bet remains to be seen.

Other players that have been linked with the club include Nottingham Forest midfielder Guy Moussi, Newcastle midfielder Joey Barton, Man Utd defender Wes Brown, former England midfielder Owen Hargreaves, and Blackpool midfielder David Vaughan. Moussi is an unknown quantity, while Barton brings a lot of baggage with him, and maybe more trouble than he’s worth, which is a shame as he’s a top player. Wes Brown could be an interesting signing, like Phil Neville years ago he has an undeserved reputation as a player due to the fact he’s spent his time at United and England playing alongside superior, world class defenders, but the truth is he is a very good player. Everton are pretty well covered in defence though.

If Fellaini or Rodwell leave Vaughan and Hargreaves may be options. David Vaughan had a fantastic season at Blackpool, beating Charlie Adam out to the club’s player of the season award. His reputation may not be huge but then neither would his price tag, and he’s the sort of player Moyes likes. He is also available on a free transfer so may be worth signing regardless. I’d love to see Hargreaves at the club on a pay as you play deal; he is a world class player and despite his injuries I believe he’d still have something to offer. Not all Evertonian’s agree with me on this one though.  

If Baines were to leave there are some good options at left back. Wayne Bridge may be thrown in as part of any deal with Man City, and there are few better defensive left backs around. But to truly replace Baines we’d want someone with a bit more attacking ability. Jose Enrique at Newcastle had a very good season and is strong going forward. Celtic’s Emilio Izaguirre is another in demand. He won every end of season award going in Scotland last season, and is very much in the Baines mould. Surely the best replacement though would be Arsenal’s Gael Clichy. He is available as he is out of contract at the end of next season, and he is a great all round full back. Enrique, Izaguirre and Clichy would all be available for around the £8-10 million mark.

Youth

One signing I think we should make at any cost is academy youngster Eric Dier. The England U-17 international is currently on loan from Sporting Lisbon, and he has the look of a young Rio Ferdinand about him. He is tall, composed and comfortable on the ball, and appears to read the game exceptionally well, and was part of the side that became national Academy champions. He is also very good going forward, and managed to score twice against Liverpool since his arrival in January – once for the Academy and once for the reserves. He has a big, big future ahead of him and Everton need to do all they can to get him on a permanent basis

Speaking of young players, over recent years Everton have produced a conveyer belt of them through the youth system that have either established themselves in the first team (Osman, Hibbert, Anichebe, Rodwell), or have been sold for a handsome profit (Rooney, Ball, Jeffers). This season is shaping up to be an even stronger batch than usual. This is an important season for Jose Baxter; he won Reserve Player of the Season last season and if not for his legal transgressions at the beginning of last season he might have broken through into the first team squad sooner. Another youngster who was unlucky, for different reasons, not to make the jump up last season was the highly rated Ross Barkley, who broke his leg on England duty. Expect to see more of him next year.

Recent signings Apostolos Vellios and Magaye Gueye impressed at the back end of last season, in particular Gueye, and he could provide a long term solution to left wing position. James Wallace and Shane Duffy are likely in last chance saloon to prove themselves, but there is a very talented batch of youngsters coming through from the side that won the national Academy title last year. Jake Bidwell, who can play at left back or centre back, looks a great prospect and won Academy player of the season, while Hallam Hope and John Lundstram both impressed with England U-17’s at the European Championships, although it is probably a bit early to expect too much from them this year. The main benefit for next season of such a strong youth presence is that it gives the club strength in depth, and that we can focus our money on improving the first team rather than having to bolster the squad

Ideal departures

James Vaughan – £2.5 million

Yakubu - £3 million

Joseph Yobo - £3 million

Diniyar Bilyaletdinov - £8 million

Jan Mucha – free

Total: £16.5 million

Ideal signings

Shane Long - £5 million

Demba Ba – free

Landon Donovan - £7 million

Eric Dier – unknown

Kieran Westwood – free

David Vaughan – free

Gael Clichy (if Baines leaves) - £10 million

Total - £12-22 million